PSA's August 25 update doubled the quoted turnaround on the $80 Regular tier to 70-80 business days, about four months. The Value tiers that used to make a $30 card worth grading have been closed since June and stay closed until the backlog is under 5 million. So the question for anyone with a stack of raw cards this autumn is simple: at these prices and these waits, which cards are still worth sending?
The three numbers
For any card, you need the raw price, the PSA 10 price and the PSA 9 price. Rip Station's card pages show all three from public comps. Then estimate your odds of a 10 honestly. For a pack-fresh modern card with good centering, the hobby's rough rule is 35 to 45 percent; for a 2016 Evolutions holo, well under that; for anything from before 2010, assume a 9 and treat a 10 as a bonus.
The expected-value rule
Expected graded value = (odds of 10 x PSA 10 price) + (odds of not-10 x PSA 9 price). Subtract the grading fee and the raw price. If what is left is not comfortably positive after shipping both ways, the card is not a grading candidate at that tier.
Worked example: a 2024 Stellar Crown Squirtle illustration rare. Our mark on the PSA 10 is $372 and on the 9 roughly a third of that. At 40 percent odds, expected graded value is about $220. Raw copies trade around $60 to $70. After an $80 fee, the expected gain is about $70, positive but not large, and the whole gain depends on the 10 price holding for four months. At Express ($149, 20-30 days) the same card is roughly break-even, which tells you it is a marginal candidate at either tier. A card with a $1,500 10 and a $400 9 is a different conversation: it clears the bar at any tier, and the right choice is the fast one.
Tier by tier
- Regular, $80, four months: only for cards where the expected gain is large and you do not need the money or the card before the new year. Price risk is real: the 30th Celebration set lands September 16 and Delta Reign November 6, and modern chase prices tend to soften when attention rotates.
- Express, $149, 20-30 days: the default for anything with a PSA 10 value over about $400. The extra $69 buys three months.
- Super Express, $349, 10-15 days, and Walk-Through, $599, 7-10 days: for cards where a 10 is worth thousands and you intend to sell into a live market, such as the weeks around Worlds or a set launch.
- Value tiers, from $25: closed. When they reopen (our estimate: December at the earliest), the $30 to $150 cards come back into play. Until then, hold them raw.
The quiet effect on prices
Fewer mid-value cards getting graded this autumn means fewer fresh PSA 10s hitting the market in the winter. That is mildly supportive of 10 prices on cards in the $100 to $300 range, the exact range where grading has stopped making sense. It is one of the few cases where a longer wait is good news for the people who already own the slabs.
PSA tier data via Baseball America, August 25, 2026.
Grade Expectations ran in The Pack Report, August 27, 2026: Worlds Opens Tomorrow, and PSA's $80 Tier Now Takes Four Months. Published by Rip Station.