The Pack Report
Rip Station's pricing engine is back after sixteen days and re-marks the vintage basket 5.2 percent higher in one reading, with Team Rocket Returns, Skyridge and EX Unseen Forces all up double digits, while Pocket's Deluxe Pack: Mega launches with a guaranteed ex in every pack.
| Up | ||
|---|---|---|
| Sharpedo exEX Deoxys · CGC 8 | $100 → $240 | +141% |
| CharizardLegendary Collection · CGC 7.5 | $114 → $225 | +98% |
| Rocket's Raikou exEX Deoxys · PSA 10 | $12,100 → $25,000 | +107% |
| PikachuGenerations (modern) · CGC 9.5 | $104 → $254 | +144% |
| Down | ||
| Poncho-wearing PikachuXY-P Promotional cards · PSA 9 | $14,488 → $10,100 | -30% |
| DeoxysEX Deoxys · CGC 6.5 | $96 → $40 | -58% |
| PsyduckAscended Heroes (modern) · BGS 9 | $199 → $51 | -74% |
The Catch-Up Reading: Vintage +5.2%, Nine Sets Up More Than 4%
Our pricing engine resumed publishing this morning after sixteen days dark, and the first reading back is the one we promised: the vintage basket against its last good marks of September 15, not against the paused weeks. It re-marked +5.2% in one step, more than the ten readings before the pause combined, with 85 of 116 cards higher.
Where It Went: Team Rocket Returns +13.5% (the Torchic and Mudkip Gold Stars), Skyridge +12.0%, Unseen Forces +11.0%, Deoxys +9.7%, Holon Phantoms +9.5%, Expedition +7.7%, Legendary Collection +7.2% (the $575,000 reverse Charizard, finally), Neo Destiny +4.8%, Neo Genesis +4.2%, Base Set +3.1%. Only Team Rocket was fractionally lower.
Modern Went the Other Way: -0.9%, the first clearly negative modern reading, with 61 of 112 cards lower: Ascended Heroes -5.6%, 151 -4.6%, Celebrations -2.9%. Full tables in the Index section.
The Bars Do Not Fit: On a chart scaled to $8.4 million, the first two sales of the same card in the same grade are too small to draw. $12,600 in July 2024, $19,200 in June 2025, $8.4 million on Monday: 440 times the last public price, fifteen months later.
What It Is: Not a price move. A move of category, from "scarce 2015 promo" to "trophy card," made by two bidders on one night. Monday's issue argued that with 57 PSA 10s in existence this is a trophy premium, not a grade premium, and that the other owners should price off the next three sales, not this one. The chart is what that argument looks like.
Vintage +5.2% vs September 15; Modern -0.9%
The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week. This reading is compared with September 15, the last date with real marks before the pause.
Back: Vintage +5.2% over sixteen days, 85 of 116 cards up, nine of twelve sets up more than 3 percent, led by Team Rocket Returns +13.5%, Skyridge +12.0% and Unseen Forces +11.0%. Modern -0.9%, 61 of 112 cards down, Ascended Heroes -5.6%, 151 -4.6%, against Evolutions +6.5%. Since August 13 the vintage basket is up about 9.6%; modern is down about 1.5%.
Vintage sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Base Set | +3.1% | 10 cards |
| Legendary Collection | +7.2% | 10 cards |
| Skyridge | +12.0% | 10 cards |
| XY-P Promotional cards | +0.0% | 10 cards |
| Expedition Base Set | +7.7% | 10 cards |
| EX Team Rocket Returns | +13.5% | 9 cards |
| EX Deoxys | +9.7% | 10 cards |
| Neo Destiny | +4.8% | 10 cards |
| EX Holon Phantoms | +9.5% | 9 cards |
| Team Rocket | -0.5% | 10 cards |
| Neo Genesis | +4.2% | 10 cards |
| EX Unseen Forces | +11.0% | 8 cards |
Modern sets
| Set | Index w/w | Basket |
|---|---|---|
| Evolutions | +6.5% | 6 cards |
| Ascended Heroes | -5.6% | 10 cards |
| Generations | +2.9% | 10 cards |
| Celebrations | -2.9% | 8 cards |
| Crown Zenith | -1.4% | 10 cards |
| Fates Collide | +0.0% | 9 cards |
| 151 | -4.6% | 10 cards |
| Paldea Evolved | -0.8% | 10 cards |
| BREAKpoint | -0.6% | 9 cards |
| Celebrations: Classic Collection | +0.4% | 10 cards |
| Pokémon Card 151 | -1.7% | 10 cards |
| Shining Legends | +0.0% | 10 cards |
A $641 Porygon-Z: Eighteen 10s in the World
The quiz card below is a 2015 XY Ancient Origins Porygon-Z holo in PSA 10, in the $100 machine, our mark $641. Raw it is a two-dollar card. PSA has graded 18 of them a 10.
Why a 2015 Card Behaves Like 1999: Two weeks ago the Sylveon VMAX had 14,000 PSA 10s and held $699 on demand. This Porygon-Z has eighteen and holds $641 on scarcity. The XY-era regular holos (2014-2016) were printed on a foil that scratches and shows print lines out of the pack, like the e-Reader reverses of 2003, and nobody bothered grading commons from those sets, so the 10 populations on non-chase XY holos are tiny. Same mechanism as the Skyridge Nidoran: a grade that is scarce because the printing was poor and the card was ignored.
The Opportunity, and the Catch: There are hundreds of XY-era holos with PSA 10 populations under fifty, and set collectors building gem-mint runs will pay for them. The catch is that the gem rate is low and the Standard tier is five months, so grading raw XY holos is a slow long shot. Buying the 10 that already exists is the efficient route.
- Guaranteed ex: Pokemon TCG Pocket's Deluxe Pack: Mega launched yesterday: 429 cards, mostly reprints from the Mega-era sets, four cards per pack, an ex in every pack, some new alternate artworks and parallel foils, available until October 29. Team Rocket's Ambition's campaign ended Tuesday with no visible effect on paper Team Rocket prices: the set read -0.5% over the sixteen-day window, the only vintage set that fell.
- Friday: 30th Celebration's second wave ships October 2: mini tins and the six-pack booster bundle. Pokemon Center's tin preorders sold out in July; bundles were still available. More six-card foil packs into a set whose chase cards settled within a week of launch.
- Sold Out, Again: Pokemon Center opened Delta Reign preorders on Tuesday for booster displays, elite trainer boxes and booster bundles, and the first wave sold out as fast as it opened. Prereleases start October 24; the set is November 6.
- Tuesday: PSA's backlog update, the first with the $59.99 Standard tier's inflow fully in the number. From 9 million at the September pace, 8.1 million would mean the pace held; above 8.3 million would mean Standard is slowing the path to the 5 million Value threshold.
A Quiet Week, and a Prerelease Staff Promo Out of the $500 Machine
Rip Check: 709 packs by 79 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, the quietest week since mid-September, after 2,064 by 395. The $25 machine led at 328 and the $150 machine was second at 179. All-time: 17,878.
Pulls of the Week: One collector's Tuesday morning in the $500 machine: a 2023 Scarlet & Violet prerelease staff Pawmot promo in PSA 10 ($994), a 2021 Vaporeon VMAX premium collection promo in PSA 10 ($690), a 2003 Aquapolis Entei in PSA 10 ($438) and a 1999 shadowless Venusaur in PSA 6 ($421), all inside thirty minutes. This morning the $250 machine gave up a 2021 Chinese 25th Anniversary Classic Collection Charizard in PSA 10 ($587). See what is live HERE.
- Oct 2 · 30th Celebration mini tins and booster bundles release
- Oct 6 · PSA's fortnightly backlog update
- Oct 24 - Nov 1 · Delta Reign prerelease events
- Oct 29 · Pocket's Deluxe Pack: Mega ends
- Nov 6 · Mega Evolution: Delta Reign
A 2015 XY Ancient Origins Porygon-Z, a regular holo rare worth a couple of dollars raw, in PSA 10, loaded in the $100 machine. PSA has graded eighteen of them a 10. What is our mark?