PSA has now published five fortnightly backlog figures since the peak. Plotted, they are close to a straight line.
| Date | Backlog | Two-week change | Weekly pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 28 | 12.4M | - | - |
| August 11 | 11.85M | -550,000 | 275,000 |
| August 25 | 10.9M | -950,000 | 475,000 |
| September 8 | 9.9M | -1,000,000 | 500,000 |
| September 22 | 9.0M | -900,000 | 450,000 |
Reading the slope
The pace stepped up once, in mid-August when the Plano hub reached full output, and has held at 450,000 to 500,000 a week since. The September 22 reading is the first to include submissions from a major set launch (30th Celebration, September 16), and the pace barely moved. That is the most useful thing in the chart: the inflow from a big launch is smaller than the clearance rate, which means the line keeps going down through the autumn unless something larger than a set launch happens.
The arithmetic
From 9.0 million to 5.0 million is 4 million cards. At 450,000 a week that is just under nine weeks, which lands in the last week of November. At 500,000 a week it is eight weeks, mid-November. Two things could move it. The new Frankfurt operation PSA mentioned this week adds capacity, which pulls the date forward if it ramps the way Plano did. Delta Reign on November 6 adds a submission wave, which pushes it back, though the 30th Celebration experience suggests not by much. Our planning date for the Value tiers is December; the first week of December is the base case.
What the Standard tier does to the line
Nothing good for it. Standard, at $59.99 and a $1,000 cap, is designed to catch the submissions that were waiting for Value, and every card submitted to Standard goes into the same active backlog. If it is popular, the inflow rises and the line flattens. PSA has said Standard orders are processed after existing Value and Bulk cards, which protects the people already in the queue but does not change the total. Whether Standard slows the path to 5 million is the thing to watch on October 6.
Sources: PSA backlog updates of August 11, August 25, September 8 and September 22, via Heavy and PSA's tracker.
Chart of the Day ran in The Pack Report, September 24, 2026: PSA at Nine Million, a $59.99 Tier, and a $1,000 Machine. Published by Rip Station.