PSA Hits 9 Million, and There Is a $59.99 Tier Now

PSA's Tuesday update put the active backlog at 9 million cards, down 900,000 from September 8 and 3.4 million (27 percent) below the July 28 peak. The 30th Celebration submission wave did not slow the pace: about 450,000 a week, with the Plano hub and a new Frankfurt operation both running.

The Tier That Reopened: The "service tier" PSA hinted at two weeks ago turned out to be a new one. Standard opened September 14 at $59.99 a card, a $1,000 maximum declared value and a quoted 90-100 business days, about five months. It sits below the old Regular tier, now renamed Priority at the same $79. PSA says it is not a replacement for the Value tiers, and Standard orders queue behind the Value and Bulk cards already in the building.

Is It Worth It: For most cards, no. $59.99 and five months versus $79 and four months is a small saving for a long extra wait, and the $1,000 cap rules out anything serious. The Value tiers (from $24.99) still reopen under 5 million, which at the current pace is about nine weeks: late November.

A Straight Line, Mostly: Five readings, each between 550,000 and a million cards lower than the last. The slope has been about 450,000 to 500,000 a week since mid-August, and the first week of 30th Celebration submissions did not bend it. Four million cards to go.

The Date: At 450,000 a week, the 5 million line is nine weeks out: the last week of November. Frankfurt coming online pulls that forward; Delta Reign on November 6 pushes it back. Plan for December, be pleased by Thanksgiving.

Index Paused: No New Marks Since September 15

The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.

Paused: Every one of the 228 cards in both baskets reads unchanged this week, and that is a data problem, not a market one. Rip Station's pricing engine has not published new lane prices since September 15; Monday's near-empty reading was the first sign and this week confirms it. The sales that should be moving the vintage basket (the $5 million Illustrator, the $575,000 Legendary Collection Charizard, the Torchic) are not in the feed yet. We are not going to print a flat reading and call it a market. The Index resumes when the engine does; we will say so, and the first reading back will cover the gap.

Vintage sets

Modern sets

A 1999 CD Promo Charizard in a 6: Why $866

The quiz card below is the 1999 Japanese CD Promo Charizard in PSA 6, our mark $866, loaded in the new $1,000 machine. It is the first Charizard printed outside a booster pack: it came in the Pokemon Song Best Collection CD in 1999, with Venusaur and Blastoise, in a cardboard sleeve, to children who played the CD.

Why 6 Is Normal Here: These cards were not stored, they were handled. Most surviving copies grade between 4 and 7, the 8s are scarce and the 9s and 10s are trophies. Unlike the Base Set Pikachu, where a 6 is a few dollars, this card carries value in every grade because the card is the thing, not the label: a 1999 Charizard with Ken Sugimori art and a known population.

The Shape: A mid-grade promo with a scarce top is the rare case where the curve is gentle at the bottom and a cliff at the top: a 4 is a real card, a 6 is $866, an 8 is a multiple, and a 10 is a different conversation. If you are buying one to own, the 6 is the honest grade for this card; if you are grading one, the only grades that pay for the fee are 8 and up.

• Delta Reign, Beyond Rayquaza: The Pokemon Company gave Serebii the first official reveals from Mega Evolution: Delta Reign on Tuesday: a standard Zarude by Nisota Niso and an illustration rare Azurill by Narumi Sato. The set is November 6, 135-plus cards, 35-plus special illustrations; these are the first cards shown that are not Mega ex headliners.
• Rocket Month Ends: Team Rocket's Ambition's missions and puzzle campaign close in Pokemon TCG Pocket on September 29, and the next Pocket set is scheduled for September 30. The paper Team Rocket set moved once (+0.8%) in the five weeks of the Pocket spotlight, before our engine paused.
• Five Months: PSA's new Standard tier quotes 90-100 business days. If you submitted on its opening day, September 14, the estimate puts your cards back in your hands in the first half of February.
• October 6: PSA's next backlog update. The number to watch is whether the pace holds above 450,000 a week with Standard-tier inflow added; 8.1 million would mean it did.

A $1,000 Machine, and the $50 Machine's Biggest Week

Rip Check: 2,064 packs by 395 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, up from 699 by 98. The $50 machine did 1,606 of them, its biggest week yet. All-time: 17,167.

New Machine: The $1,000 machine is open. This issue's quiz card, the 1999 CD Promo Charizard, is one of the cards in it.

Pulls of the Week: Tuesday the $150 machine gave up a 2006 POP Series 1 Rayquaza holo in PSA 8, estimated at $1,199, eight times the ticket; Wednesday it followed with a 1999 Japanese Squirtle Deck Blastoise holo in PSA 8 ($494). Tuesday morning the $200 machine produced a 2000 Gym Heroes First Edition Lt. Surge's Fearow holo in PSA 9 ($477), and this morning the $250 machine turned out a 2017 Sun & Moon Umbreon GX in PSA 10 ($438) and a 2015 Japanese Emerald Break M Rayquaza EX in PSA 10 ($428) ninety minutes apart. See what is live HERE.