Day One: Sellouts, and a Secret Mew for $20,000

Pokemon TCG: 30th Celebration released worldwide yesterday, the first set in the game's history to launch everywhere on the same day. UK retail drops sold out within minutes and a large share of pre-orders had not shipped by the evening.

The Card Nobody Announced: The set has three chase cards The Pokemon Company never revealed: RGB Mew ex, in Red, Green and Blue versions. The first one reported, a Blue, sold on eBay for $20,000 on launch day, before most buyers had opened a pack. A 199-card set with every card foil and a Pikachu in every pack was always going to have soft singles prices; the three secret Mews are where the scarcity went.

What to Watch: Pull-rate reports over the weekend, the first graded RGB Mews, and the Celebrations set from 2021, which fell 1.1% in our Index this week as the previous anniversary product gives way to the new one.

The Streak Ends, Quietly: After ten positive readings and Monday's record +0.9%, the vintage basket read exactly 0.0%: 50 cards up, 46 flat, 20 down. The median card did not move; the basket is still up about 4.2% since August 13. Expedition (+2.8%), Holon Phantoms (+2.7%) and Unseen Forces (+2.0%) were still rising; Team Rocket Returns, Monday's +6.7%, read flat as the Torchic re-mark settled.

What Would Worry Us: Not this. A pause three days after a record reading, with more cards up than down, is digestion. A negative reading with the EX sets leading down, or two flat weeks with breadth collapsing, would be a top. Neither has happened.

Vintage Flat After Ten Up; Modern Flat, Ascended Heroes -2.7%

The Pack Report Index tracks two baskets: the ten most-traded cards in each of twelve vintage sets (1999-2007) and twelve modern sets (2016 on), priced by our own engine from public comps, grade by grade, and compared with the same day last week.

Pause: Vintage read 0.0%, its first non-positive reading in eleven, with 50 cards up and 20 down; the basket is still up about 4.2% since August 13. Expedition +2.8%, Holon Phantoms +2.7% and Unseen Forces +2.0% kept rising; Team Rocket Returns was flat after Monday's +6.7%, and the XY-P promos slipped 1.0%. Modern was flat for the eleventh reading: Ascended Heroes -2.7%, Classic Collection -2.0%, Celebrations -1.1% on the day their successor launched.

Vintage sets

Modern sets

A 10 With 14,000 Siblings, Still $699

The quiz card below is the 2021 Evolving Skies Sylveon VMAX alternate art in PSA 10. PSA has graded roughly 14,000 of them a 10. Our mark is $699.

Population Is Not Price: Last week's Skyridge Nidoran reverse was a four-figure card because a dozen 10s exist. This Sylveon is a three-figure card with fourteen thousand. The two facts are not in tension: on a vintage common, scarcity of the grade is the value; on a modern chase, demand for the card is the value and the grade is a liquidity tier. Evolving Skies alternate arts are the most-wanted modern cards of the Sword & Shield era, and 14,000 collectors wanting a perfect copy is a deeper market than twelve collectors wanting a perfect Nidoran.

What Population Does Tell You: How fast you can sell, and how little the 10 premium over the 9 will be. On this card the 9 trades at roughly half the 10, and both lanes clear daily. The thing to watch is not the population report but the demand: 30th Celebration's thirty Pikachus and the RGB Mews are the new objects competing for the same collectors' money.

• Correction, and a Million: A 1999 First Edition shadowless Charizard in PSA 10 sold on eBay for $1,000,953 on September 9, the second seven-figure Charizard of the year. Monday's issue said the card had not traded publicly since February; that was wrong, and the Sunday top-five from SI Collectibles that reported it was published the same day. The February record was $954,800; this is the first time the card has cleared a million.
• Vending Machine Gengar: A 1999 Japanese Vending Masaki promo Gengar in PSA 10 sold for $207,000 on eBay on September 12. The Masaki promos were mail-order cards from 1999; a six-figure Gengar from that series is the trophy-promo tier reaching one rung further down.
• Tuesday: PSA's next fortnightly backlog update is September 22. Two weeks ago: 9.9 million, 500,000 a week, and a hint that a closed tier could reopen this month. This update is the one that catches the 30th Celebration submission wave.
• Pocket, September 30: Pokemon TCG Pocket's next set is scheduled for September 30, the day after the Team Rocket's Ambition campaign ends. The paper Team Rocket set, which we have been watching for a Pocket effect, read +0.8% this week, its first move in a month.

The $500 Machine's Biggest Week, and a $2,556 Mew

Rip Check: 699 packs by 98 collectors in the seven days to Thursday, the quietest week on record for packs, but the $500 machine had its biggest week ever at 135, second only to the $25 machine (248). Fewer rips, much bigger ones. All-time: 15,103.

Pulls of the Week: All five from the $500 machine. Wednesday morning a 2006 POP Series 4 Mew holo in PSA 9, estimated at $2,556. Tuesday a 2022 Pokemon Center UK Special Delivery Charizard in PSA 10 ($1,975) and a 1999 Jungle First Edition Flareon holo in PSA 9 ($1,950). Wednesday evening a 2017 Shining Legends Mewtwo GX secret rare in PSA 9 ($1,595), and Monday a 2005 Delta Species Dragonite δ reverse holo in PSA 9 ($1,266). See what is live HERE.